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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

SPC Oct 6, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail will remain possible across parts of Arizona this evening. ...Arizona... An upper trough/low present over the lower CO River Valley early this evening will move slowly northeastward across AZ and towards the Four Corners region tonight though early Wednesday morning. 30-40 kt of mid-level south-southwesterly winds over AZ will continue to support similar values of effective bulk shear. Organized storms, including multiple supercells, should pose a threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts for the next couple of hours this evening. Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show one round of strong to severe storms has generally moved north of the Mogollon Rim and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment across northern/eastern AZ. The best combination of instability and shear should remain over the lower terrain south of the Rim, including the Phoenix metro area. The Slight Risk for damaging winds and large hail has been adjusted to highlight this area across mainly central AZ for the next few hours (through about 03-04Z). Gradually increasing convective inhibition and tendency for storms to move north of the better boundary-layer instability are expected to result in a gradual lessening of the severe threat late this evening and overnight. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussions 1802 and 1803 for more information on the near-term severe threat across this region. ...Southeast... With the loss of daytime heating, instability will gradually decrease across MS and vicinity over the next few hours. While an isolated strong storm capable of producing mainly small hail and gusty winds may continue for another hour or so this evening, the overall severe threat should remain low overnight. Otherwise, convection may increase in coverage late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast as southerly low-level winds strengthen slightly to around 15-20 kt. This activity is forecast to be centered on the western FL Panhandle region. RAP/NAM forecast soundings across this area show modest low-level shear, but weak mid-level winds and deep-layer shear. While an isolated strong storm may occur in this regime, weak instability inland suggests the organized severe risk will likely remain low through the end of the period. ..Gleason.. 10/06/2021 Read more LIVE: