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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

SPC Oct 5, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Tue Oct 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong wind gusts or a brief tornado is possible across parts of northern and central Alabama on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low centered over AR will lift slowly northward across the Ozark Plateau on Wednesday. Southerly deep-layer flow across the Southeast on the eastern side of the upper low and associated trough will maintain rich boundary-layer moisture across the Southeast. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this warm advection regime across the TN Valley to the Ohio Valley. ...AL... Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F are forecast on Wednesday. Cloud cover and periods of ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit heating, but MLCAPE around 750-1250 J/kg appears likely. A surface trough will be oriented roughly north to south near the AL/MS border, resulting in southeasterly low-level flow beneath south/southwesterly mid/upper level flow. While deep-layer flow is not expected to be strong, effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt are expected. This should aid in at least briefly organized cells amid weak instability. Backed low-level flow near/east of the surface trough axis are contributing to somewhat small, but favorably curved, low-level hodographs in forecast soundings. Given rich boundary-layer moisture and weak instability, some weak/briefly rotating cells will be possible. While weak instability and somewhat modest large-scale ascent will limit overall severe potential, at least a couple of strong gusts or perhaps a brief tornado will be possible, and a Marginal risk has been introduced to parts of northern/central AL. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2021 Read more LIVE: