Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance continues to show a mean mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes during the early half of the extended period. The operational EC run-to-run continuity is beginning to show the amplification of a mid-level trough over the MS Valley by Thursday (day 5) with a mid-level low evolving over the Appalachians by the Friday-Saturday timeframe. This scenario is substantially different than GFS-based model guidance during the last several runs. Opting for a forecast solution more closely to the EC model on Friday and would lend some risk for severe weather over parts of the coastal Southeast states. Predictability in this scenario is low but severe potential is non-negligible. Towards the end of the extended period, low-potential appears to aptly characterize the possible pattern of a trough in the East and ridge over parts of the interior West. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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