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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, October 26, 2021

SPC Oct 26, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected from Wednesday into Wednesday night from parts of east and southeast Texas eastward across Louisiana to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning from OK southward into south-central TX ahead of a powerful mid-level trough moving across the southern Great Plains and into the lower MS Valley. A seasonably moist airmass is forecast ahead of a cold front forecast to sweep eastward across the southern Great Plains and into the portions of the central Gulf Coast states Wednesday night. An isolated to widely scattered wind-damage threat may linger into the start of the Day-2 period (Wednesday morning), and reinvigorate/continue into the afternoon across east TX into LA amidst lower 70s dewpoints with MLCAPE ranging 500-1500 J/kg from southeast TX into central LA. Forecast hodographs support organized storms including the possibility for supercells, but the strongly forced convective line will likely favor mainly a damaging-gust threat and perhaps several mesovortices capable of tornadoes. The greatest risk for supercells and associated tornado/wind hazards may develop over the northern Gulf and perhaps in coastal areas of southeast LA late in the day. Weaker instability farther east overnight into the FL Panhandle will tend to limit the spatial extent of the severe risk. Farther northwest during the late afternoon over eastern OK/western AR, a conditional scenario for destabilization and perhaps a low-severe probability risk may unfold for a few hours immediately ahead of the mid-level cold pocket. This activity will likely weaken by sunset owing to waning instability. ..Smith.. 10/26/2021 Read more LIVE:
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)