SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and isolated tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from late Tuesday afternoon through the evening into the overnight. ...Central/Southern Plains... The strong shortwave trough currently moving through central/southern CA will continue eastward, reaching the Four Corner region later this morning and the central/southern High Plains by this evening. A deepening lee trough will precede this shortwave across the High Plains, with eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains late this afternoon/early this evening. The resulting surface low is then forecast to move eastward across the central Plains while an attendant cold front sweeps southeastward/eastward through the central and southern High Plains. This front will likely extend from the central KS/OK border southward/south-southwestward through the TX Hill Country. Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated within the broad warm sector across the southern and central Plains ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach into north-central KS by 00Z Wednesday, with mid 60s dewpoints through central OK. The strongest heating/mixing is anticipated across the western edge of the warm sector (from southwest KS through the TX Big Country), where temperatures should reach the mid 80s. Less mixing and more clouds should keep temperatures slightly lower for areas farther east. Warm temperatures aloft will likely limit storm development throughout much of the day. Potential exists for isolated late afternoon/early evening development along the dry line from southwest KS southward along the TX Panhandle/western OK border into northwest TX. However, confidence in this early initiation is currently low, with capping expected to prevail amid the modest moisture return and anticipated mixing. All severe hazards would be possible with any storm that is able to persist. Thunderstorms development is expected from central KS into southwest TX as the cold front approaches and then overtakes the dry line during the evening (00-04Z time frame). Given the strong meridional flow, this development should quickly grow upscale into one or more bowing line segments. Within a few hours of initiation, a more coherent, solid line of thunderstorms will likely exist along the length of the front. Strong wind gusts will be the primary threat, with some significant severe wind gusts possible. Large hail could also occur, particularly early with initial development. The strongly veered low-level flow also suggests the threat exists for embedded/QLCS tornadoes. Weaker instability is expected across eastern OK and central/east TX, with storms likely to gradually dissipate as they move into that area early Wednesday morning. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 10/26/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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