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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, October 23, 2021

SPC Oct 23, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Large hail is expected with thunderstorms later tonight across portions of the central Plains/lower Missouri Valley region. ...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin into CO/NM later this evening before ejecting into the central High Plains by the end of the period. Southwesterly LLJ will be focused across northern OK into southeast KS at sunrise, and this should aid early-day thunderstorms, some of which could produce marginally severe hail. However, LLJ is expected to weaken during the day before refocusing after sunset over eastern KS/western MO. Lee surface cyclone will migrate from southeast CO into south-central KS during the overnight hours and this will ensure strong low-level warm advection reorients itself across northern KS/MO during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest strong boundary-layer heating across the southern High Plains may result in one or two surface-based storms across the TX South Plains, north to near the surface low. However, this activity should die quickly with loss of heating. Of more concern will be significant moistening atop the boundary layer into the warm advection zone along the nose of the LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest strong MUCAPE, in excess of 3000 J/kg, will develop near the warm frontal zone after 24/00z. Elevated thunderstorms will evolve along this corridor by 03z and hail is expected with any supercells that mature across the lower MO Valley. A cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to propagate across northern MO toward central IL by daybreak Sunday. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/23/2021 Read more LIVE: