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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, October 19, 2021

SPC Oct 20, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms posing a risk for isolated severe hail may occur later this evening and overnight across parts of northern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota, northwest Iowa, and southwest Minnesota. ...Northern NE...Southeast SD...Northwest IA...Southwest MN... A closed mid/upper level low near the CO/WY border this evening is forecast to move northeastward towards the Sand Hills region of NE overnight, as an attendant surface low moves into eastern NE. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and increasing moisture in the 850-700 mb layer will support MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (locally higher) late this evening into the overnight hours. Increasing large-scale ascent will support scattered elevated thunderstorm development through late tonight, generally near and north of a surface boundary draped from northeast NE into northwest MN/southwest MN. Effective shear of greater than 30 kt may favor some storm organization, and isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. ..Dean.. 10/20/2021 Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)