SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible across parts of the Midwest on Wednesday. ...Midwest... An upper trough/low will advance eastward from the Plains across parts of the Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, an accompanying cold front will extend from a low near the NE/IA border southward across the central/southern Plains. A warm front should stretch eastward from the surface low to the Great Lakes. Partially modified low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf of Mexico should return northward ahead of the cold front across the Midwest through the period. Weak destabilization appears possible, with MUCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Mainly elevated storms to the north of the warm front will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning over parts of northern IA/southern MN with strong forcing associated with the ejecting upper low. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and weak instability present, some of the stronger cores may be capable of producing marginally severe hail. Additional convection may develop later Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern WI across IL and far eastern MO along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Fairly strong mid-level flow should contribute to around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear across this region. However, boundary-layer instability will likely be stunted by a low-level inversion/cap through much of the day. Latest guidance does not suggest much potential for robust convective development along the front due to the thermodynamic limitations. Even so, have opted to maintain the ongoing Marginal Risk in the event that sufficient low-level moisture return occurs to overcome the cap. If any surface-based storms can form, then strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail may occur given the favorable deep-layer shear. ..Gleason.. 10/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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