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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, October 2, 2021

SPC Oct 2, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Sat Oct 02 2021 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN/WESTERN AR VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are possible this afternoon into early evening, mainly across southern Missouri into northern and western Arkansas. ...AR/MO vicinity... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will eject towards the Mid-MS Valley through tonight. A rich moist sector characterized by mid 60s to low 70s boundary-layer dew points will encompass a broad swath of the Gulf Coast States to Midwest ahead of this trough. Numerous ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms along with pervasive low-level cloudiness will limit robust boundary-layer heating. Some potential will exist for modest destabilization within the mid-level dry slot this afternoon, to the south and in the immediate wake of an ongoing convective cluster moving east-northeast from central OK. 35-40 kt 500-mb southwesterlies to the southeast of the trough may support a few updrafts with mid-level rotation atop meager low-level flow. This setup could yield isolated instances of marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts from microbursts through about dusk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/02/2021 Read more LIVE: