SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia Thursday. A few storms capable of marginally severe hail might occur late Thursday night over southern Oklahoma. ...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania... Limited low-level moisture return will occur Thursday with a narrow corridor of mid 50s dewpoints from OH into western PA. Forcing for ascent accompanying a progressive shortwave trough and its attendant cold front will move through the OH Valley during the day. Low-topped convection is expected to develop within narrow corridor of weak instability along and just ahead of the front. Activity will be embedded within strong unidirectional southwesterly winds. Potential will exist for higher momentum air to be transported to the surface within some of the rain cores during the afternoon. Overall threat should remain limited by the anticipated marginal thermodynamic environment. ...Southern Oklahoma... A cold front is expected to stall in vicinity of the OK/TX border. Partially modified Gulf air will return northward beneath 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE from northwest TX into southern OK. Modest isentropic ascent north of this boundary may contribute to the development of a few thunderstorms very late in the period, and some of these updrafts might become capable of producing a few instances of hail. ..Dial.. 10/19/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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