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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

SPC Oct 19, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail will be possible over a portion of the Midwest region on Wednesday. ...Midwest Region... A shortwave trough now situated over the Great Basin will advance east, reaching the Midwest on Wednesday. The accompanying cold front will extend from a surface low in northwest IA southwest through the central Plains by 12Z Wednesday. A warm front will stretch eastward from the low into the Great Lakes. By the end of the period the cold front should extend from a surface low near Lake MI southwest into southern IL and the southern Plains. Partially modified Gulf air with a narrow corridor of mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints will return through the warm sector resulting in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be in progress early Wednesday within zone of stronger forcing north of the warm front from northern IA into southern MN. Given steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, some hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Later in the day, additional thunderstorm development is possible farther southeast from IL into eastern MO within corridor of ascent along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will be embedded within moderate to strong deep layer winds and 40-45 kt effective bulk shear. It appears that the updraft inflow layer will be rooted above the surface, but sufficient dry air may be present in the boundary layer to support at least a marginal risk for a few strong to damaging wind gusts. ..Dial.. 10/19/2021 Read more LIVE: