SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest, southern Great Plains, and far southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico. ...Lower MI to IL... The threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds may persist for a couple more hours. Leading activity has largely weakened over the past few hours after shifting away from the instability axis into lesser MLCAPE/greater MLCIN. Attempts at redevelopment along the surface cold front have occurred in northeast IL to central Lower MI. The longevity of the severe threat in MI will likely be limited by a substantially cooler boundary layer. An upstream feed of larger buoyancy (sampled by 00Z Lincoln IL sounding) should support somewhat longer lingering of isolated severe potential in east-central IL into northwest/west-central IN. ...Western OK to southeast KS... Thunderstorms appear to be peaking in coverage along the southward-sagging trailing cold front. Moderate to large buoyancy (per 00Z Norman sounding) exists within a confined plume in the central OK to southeast KS portion of the frontal zone, with weaker MLCAPE/drier boundary layer farther west. Isolated severe wind and hail will remain possible for a couple more hours before updraft intensities wane after dusk. Sporadic elevated convection may persist tonight farther south in OK to the Ozarks within a weak low-level warm advection regime, but severe potential should be minimal. ...Southeast AZ/southwest NM... A few discrete cells may pose a threat for isolated severe wind and hail within a belt of favorable mid-level speed shear and a well-mixed boundary layer. The degree of shear (effective values around 40 kt per 00Z Tucson and El Paso soundings) will likely maintain discrete character until convection weakens after dusk. ..Grams.. 09/08/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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