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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

SPC Sep 5, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 05 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough centered over the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians will quickly pivot eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A belt of moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow will help contribute to modest vertical shear over parts of New England. At the surface, a cold front will extend from western ME, southward along the Mid-Atlantic coast, and into the NC Piedmont vicinity. The front will quickly shift eastward across southern New England during the morning/early afternoon. The poorly timed frontal passage prior to peak heating will limit destabilization across much of New England, except perhaps portions of ME. Forecast guidance suggests boundary-layer moisture will be limited except near the coast where low/mid 60s F dewpoints are possible. However, heating will be restricted and modest midlevel lapse rates should further limit instability. A storm or two could briefly become strong enough to produce small hail given effective-shear magnitudes around 30 kt amid MLCAPE less than 750 J/kg, but overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to include probabilities. Another upper shortwave trough will deepen over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest Monday night/early Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern MN/WI into the U.P. of MI overnight in weak warm advection, ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Limited instability and the elevated nature of convection will preclude severe potential with this activity. ..Leitman.. 09/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov