SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Central Plains... Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the central Plains, in conjunction with an ejecting mid/upper-level trough, and an associated subtropical plume that includes remnant moisture from former T.C. Nora. In the wake of the early convection, some heating/destabilization is expected in advance of a cold front that is forecast to move eastward across portions of the SD/NE/KS during the day and evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon near the primary surface front, and also potentially near any modifying outflow boundaries left behind by morning convection. The magnitude of the severe threat across the region remains somewhat uncertain, due to several competing factors. Low/midlevel flow is expected to remain sufficiently strong to support organized convection along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, but flow fields will generally be weakening through the day as the main upper trough lifts away from the region, and midlevel lapse rates will also tend to weaken with time. Despite the negative factors, the current expectation is for a few organized cells and/or clusters to develop across portions of central NE/north-central KS and move eastward during the afternoon/evening. While DCAPE is not expected to be large, water-loaded downdrafts within the high-PW environment and sufficient low-level flow will support some damaging wind potential with the stronger clusters, especially where stronger diurnal heating occurs. Low-level shear/SRH will also be sufficient to support some tornado threat with any sustained supercell, especially in the vicinity of any modifying outflow or differential heating zone. Any sustained supercell would also pose some marginal hail risk. A Slight Risk has been included to cover the potential multi-hazard threat across the region. ..Dean/Wendt.. 09/02/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
http://dlvr.it/S6nX06
