Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Modestly amplified mid-level troughing is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies early next week, and may undergo further amplification while slowly continuing across and east of the Mississippi Valley through the middle to latter portion of next week. As it does, it appears that a fairly significant surface cold front may surge out ahead of the stronger mid-level cold pool and forcing for ascent, and the most prominent surface cyclogenesis may occur near/east of the James/Hudson Bay vicinity. A remnant plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air probably will be eroded/overturned across the Great Plains, and generally weak destabilization (at least where stronger shear and forcing for ascent become focused) probably will be a mitigating factor concerning the risk for severe weather. While thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may be possible along/ahead of the front, the overall severe weather potential appears relatively low at this time. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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