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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, September 17, 2021

SPC Sep 17, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRID ERROR ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms may occur across the southern High Plains late this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern High Plains including western portions KS/OK/TX... A hot and semi-moist but well-mixed boundary layer will exist near/ahead of a southeastward-sagging front across the region, with isolated thunderstorms expected particularly during the late afternoon through early/mid-evening. While deep-layer winds and vertical shear will be weak (effective shear 20-25 kt at most), the hot/well-mixed boundary layer characteristics could support some stronger storms with wind gust potential on an isolated basis. ...Southern Arizona... To the east of an inland-moving shortwave trough over southern California, moisture will increase into southern Arizona toward the Lower Colorado River Valley today. This may contribute to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon across far southern Arizona. Heating will result in inverted-V profiles, and a few storms may develop in this regime by late afternoon and early evening. Isolated, strong convective gusts cannot be ruled out, but any severe wind risk currently appears limited. ..Guyer.. 09/17/2021 Read more LIVE: