Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Sat/D4, a leading shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains, with substantial model variability regarding winds aloft. For example, ECMWF and GFS models suggest 500 mb winds may be anywhere from 15 to 45 kt over NE. At the surface, low pressure is forecast over the Dakotas, with an expanse of upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints across the mid MO and upper MS Valleys. Scattered storms are likely across the eastern Dakotas and NE into IA and MN from late afternoon through Sun/D5 morning, and modest shear may support at least isolated severe storms, but predictability is too low regarding the upper trough. For Sun/D5 through Wed/D8, substantial model discrepancies exist regarding one or more shortwave troughs developing from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. In addition, run-to-run variability within the deterministic models remains high. Therefore, while a moist and unstable air mass will be present ahead of these shortwave troughs, predictability is much too low to denote where the risk areas will be. In general, the northern Plains and upper MS Valley remain an area of interest going forward. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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