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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

SPC Aug 4, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OREGON ACROSS IDAHO AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging gusts are possible from central Oregon into western Montana Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move across northern CA and OR during the day, and across NV and ID after 00Z, providing increasing large-scale ascent. To the east, a weakening upper trough will move from the OH Valley and Appalachians to the East Coast by 00Z, with rapidly warming midlevel temperatures over the region. At the surface, a front will remain from the northern Gulf Coast to the Carolina Coast, with portions of the front extending inland across southern AL and GA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur through the period along this boundary. Weak shear will preclude any severe threat, but a few strong gusts from outflow may occur from the Florida Panhandle into southern AL and GA. To the west, a surface trough will develop from eastern WA/OR into ID and northern NV, ahead of the shortwave trough which now appears favorably timed for isolated afternoon and evening storms. ...OR across ID and into western MT... The shortwave trough is forecast to move a bit faster than previously shown by models, and this may prove favorable for at least isolated severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening, beginning after 21Z over central OR. Other storms will then develop over central and southern ID, and move into southwest MT. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and deep-layer shear increasing to 40-50 kt with the wave. Locally damaging gusts will be the primary concern, with MUCAPE averaging around 500 J/kg and a well-mixed boundary layer. ..Jewell.. 08/04/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov