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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

SPC Aug 24, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... There is a risk for isolated severe storms across portions of the north-central U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Height falls will continue to spread across the north-central U.S. Thursday, ahead of a slowly weakening upper trough advancing out of the western mountains and into the northern Plains. As this occurs, weak surface cyclogenesis is progged over the Nebraska vicinity, along a remnant west-to-east baroclinic zone. Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail across the south central and into much of the eastern portion of the country. ...Northern High Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley... Height falls -- implying large-scale ascent -- will continue to overspread the north-central CONUS, focused near a remnant baroclinic zone from the northern High Plains southeastward into Nebraska and Iowa. While a rather dry surface airmass is progged across much of this region, diurnal mixing should result in a deep mixed layer, with modest CAPE atop this layer. As such, isolated/afternoon storms are expected to develop, near the front from the northern High Plains into the Nebraska vicinity. With these storms, locally damaging wind gusts -- aided by sub-cloud evaporation -- should be the primary risk. During the evening and overnight, warm advection will increase in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet over the Plains. Thus -- storms north of the surface boundary should evolve, accompanied by local risk for hail. ..Goss.. 08/24/2021 Read more LIVE: