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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 24, 2021

SPC Aug 24, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms may occur across portions of the northern High Plains/northern Plains vicinity on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper ridge will continue to prevail across a large portion of the country Wednesday, though gradual progression of a trough across the western U.S. is expected -- which will suppress the western fringe of the upper ridge with time. At the surface, a cold front will move slowly across the Upper Great Lakes region, in conjunction with a weak mid-level short-wave trough embedded in the belt of enhanced westerlies along the Canada/U.S. border. The trailing portion of this front will settle in a west-to-east manner across the central Plains, and then northwestward across the northern High Plains region through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... In the wake of weak short-wave troughing that will shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes region, weak height falls are progged across the north-central U.S. through the day. By late afternoon however, height falls will begin to spread into the northern High Plains ahead of the slowly advancing western trough. This will result in an increase in low-level southerly/southeasterly flow, and resulting warm advection across the northern High Plains/northern Plains. In response, expect isolated, mainly elevated storms to develop during the late afternoon over the High Plains, and then spreading eastward into the Dakotas and vicinity with time, as the low-level jet intensifies. Given steep lapse rates/ample CAPE atop a low-level stable layer, and moderate mid-level west-southwesterly flow, expect a few stronger storms to evolve, with attendant potential for hail production. As such, will maintain MRGL risk across portions of the north-central states. ..Goss.. 08/24/2021 Read more LIVE:
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