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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, August 22, 2021

SPC Aug 22, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible from the Mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will become further entrenched across the southern half to two-thirds of the U.S. Tuesday, as height rises spread gradually northward with time. At the surface, a cold front -- advancing eastward in tandem with a south-central Canada/northern U.S. upper short-wave trough -- will traverse the northern and central Plains through the period. This front will focus afternoon and evening convective activity. ...Eastern Nebraska/southeastern South Dakota into the Upper Mississippi Valley area... As a cold front advances eastward across the northern Plains, diurnal heating of a moist warm sector will result in moderate destabilization. This will support afternoon development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota southwestward into Nebraska. With a belt of 40 kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow forecast atop this area, on the southeastern fringe of the upper system, shear sufficient for a few storms to organize/become severe is evident. As such, MRGL risk is being introduced, for all-hazards severe potential, but which may remain sparse in coverage due to rather weak large-scale forcing. As evolution becomes a bit more clear in future updates, SLGT risk upgrade may become warranted. ..Goss.. 08/22/2021 Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)