SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible from the Mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will become further entrenched across the southern half to two-thirds of the U.S. Tuesday, as height rises spread gradually northward with time. At the surface, a cold front -- advancing eastward in tandem with a south-central Canada/northern U.S. upper short-wave trough -- will traverse the northern and central Plains through the period. This front will focus afternoon and evening convective activity. ...Eastern Nebraska/southeastern South Dakota into the Upper Mississippi Valley area... As a cold front advances eastward across the northern Plains, diurnal heating of a moist warm sector will result in moderate destabilization. This will support afternoon development of scattered showers and thunderstorms, from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota southwestward into Nebraska. With a belt of 40 kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow forecast atop this area, on the southeastern fringe of the upper system, shear sufficient for a few storms to organize/become severe is evident. As such, MRGL risk is being introduced, for all-hazards severe potential, but which may remain sparse in coverage due to rather weak large-scale forcing. As evolution becomes a bit more clear in future updates, SLGT risk upgrade may become warranted. ..Goss.. 08/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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