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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, August 22, 2021

SPC Aug 22, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears low across the U.S. for Monday. ...Synopsis... As remnants of Hurricane Henri move eastward across New England Monday, relatively quiescent conditions with respect to severe weather should reside across most areas east of the Mississippi. Farther west, a short-wave trough will exit the Pacific Northwest and cross Montana -- the southern extension of a weak upper low crossing southern Alberta and reaching southern Saskatchewan by the end of the period. South/southeast of this trough, weak cyclonic disturbances embedded in a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly flow will move out of the Rockies and traverse the Plains/upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region through the period. ...Mid Missouri Valley Vicinity... Near a surface baroclinic zone progged to extend from the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Mid Missouri Valley area, an amply moist/destabilizing environment should contribute to scattered afternoon storm development. Storms should initially evolve over the Nebraska vicinity, and then develop/spread east-northeastward across Iowa/southern Minnesota and eventually southern Wisconsin/and possibly into parts of northern Illinois through the evening. Moderate deep-layer westerlies at mid levels may contribute to local multicell organization, with a stronger storm or two perhaps becoming briefly severe. However, potential appears too low to warrant Day 2 risk area inclusion. ...Parts of Wyoming and eastern Montana into the western Dakotas... While a lack of low-level moisture will reside across the region ahead of the advancing mid-level trough, isolated, high-based storms may evolve over portions of Wyoming and adjacent southern and eastern Montana by late afternoon. As storms spread east-northeastward with time into the Dakotas, a couple of the stronger storms could -- with the aid of sub-cloud evaporation within the deep mixed layer -- produce strong/gusty outflow winds. However, coverage of any severe wind risk is expected to remain sparse -- i.e. below 5% thresholds. ..Goss.. 08/22/2021 Read more LIVE:
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)