SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...PARTS OF OK/AR...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening over portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast, parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas, and over parts of southern and central Arizona. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard expected with these storms. ...Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered thunderstorm clusters will likely persist for a few hours tonight across portions of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. These clusters will continue moving through an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy and modest southwesterly deep-layer flow, and will continue to pose a threat of at least isolated damaging wind, though a gradual weakening trend is expected with time as MLCINH increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Arizona... The east-northeasterly midlevel flow regime to the south of the upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will support the potential for one or more thunderstorm clusters to spread into the lower elevations this evening across central/southern AZ. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest clusters. A Slight Risk was considered, but substantial uncertainty remains regarding coverage of the severe threat into the lower elevations, so the Marginal Risk was maintained with no changes. ...Oklahoma/Arkansas... Weakly sheared thunderstorms across portions of OK/AR may persist for a few hours this evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts and/or loosely organized outflows. Any remaining threat should diminish after sunset. ..Dean.. 08/14/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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