SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Elsa, are possible across the eastern Carolinas into far southeast Virginia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic is forecast on Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnants of current Tropical Storm Elsa will lift northeast across the Carolinas to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic. Further west, upper ridging will overspread the northern Plains as a shortwave trough ejects east/southeast across the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valleys. ...Eastern Carolinas into far southeast VA... The National Hurricane Center currently is forecasting Elsa to weaken into a tropical depression late in the Day 2 period and continue northeastward on Thursday across the Carolinas to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. The core of this system will remain rather compact, with a corridor of modest SRH residing mainly along the coastal plain and Outer Banks vicinity into southeast VA through the forecast period. A couple of tropical cyclone related tornadoes could accompany this system Thursday and Thursday night. ...Northeast... Vertical shear will be marginally stronger on Thursday compared to Wednesday. However, poor midlevel lapse rates and weaker low level lapse rates, combined with weaker instability will limit severe potential. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the region during the morning/early afternoon, further hindering severe potential. Nevertheless, weak instability combined with high PW values could result in isolated gusty winds with stronger storms/clusters. ...Northern High Plains... Forecast guidance varies quite a bit regarding severe thunderstorm potential across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday. An upper shortwave trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, resulting in strengthening mid/upper flow and increasing vertical shear. However, boundary layer moisture will remain modest and instability generally weak. Additionally, strong forcing will not arrive over the region until after 00z. Some guidance depicts very little convection, with some holding off until evening/overnight when the threat could become more elevated. Given the conditional nature of the threat and uncertainty regarding timing/coverage will hold off on including probs at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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