SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind are possible over a portion of the Northeast States this afternoon and early evening. A few tornadoes are possible over a portion of the Florida Peninsula through tonight in association with Tropical Storm Elsa. ...Northeast States and southern New England... A low-amplitude/quasi-zonal flow regime will feature a weak disturbance moving east across the Northeast U.S. during the day. In the low levels, west-southwesterly will maintain a fetch of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints while strong heating, especially closer to the coast, will yield moderate MLCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg). A weak cap will likely erode by the midday with scattered storms developing and increasing in coverage by late afternoon. A couple of bands of storms are likely to evolve with strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of wind damage. ...Florida Peninsula... Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move northward just off western Florida coast today before finally moving inland along the west coast of the northern FL Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Based on this motion, the corridor of strongest low-level shear accompanying Elsa should spread northward through the FL Peninsula during the day and into the overnight. The stronger convection developing in the outer bands east of the center may become capable of producing a few tornadoes during the period. ...Central Plains through Upper Midwest and Great Lakes... Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the moderately unstable environment along a cold front from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Other storms will develop along a lee trough and higher terrain and spread east into the southern High Plains. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, but the thermodynamic environment may support a few instances of locally strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Northern High Plains... A moderately strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow regime on the northern periphery of a ridge is forecast. Easterly component to low-level flow will aid in marginal moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. Model guidance is indicating a few widely spaced storms are possible during the late afternoon/evening from north-central MT southeastward into northeast WY. Given the steep lapse rates and strong effective shear, a hail/wind threat may accompany any sustained storm. ..Smith/Moore.. 07/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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