SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms capable of locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible on Wednesday across parts of Pennsylvania into portions of the Northeast. ...PA into the Northeast... An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Great Lakes, maintaining 30-40 kt midlevel flow over the region. A very moist airmass will reside over the area with mid to upper 60s dewpoints forecast beneath modest midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will result in strong destabilization by afternoon, with MLCAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg expected. Low level flow will remain weak, and deep layer flow rather unidirectional, resulting in mostly modest effective shear magnitudes. However, some stronger vertical shear is possible near the U.S./Canadian border. Mostly, weak shear should limit severe potential somewhat. Nevertheless, steep low level lapse rates and favorable instability should support some threat for locally damaging gusts in thunderstorm clusters/line segments during the afternoon and evening. ...Northern FL into southeast GA... Current Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track across northern FL into GA on Wednesday. Tropical cyclone related tornado activity associated with this system appears low at this time, but trends in low level wind fields and the exact track of this system will be monitored closely. ..Leitman.. 07/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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