SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this evening over parts of the southern High Plains and the western Lake Superior vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Ongoing clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms from parts of southwest KS/southeast CO southward into eastern NM/west TX will likely persist for a few more hours. The greatest severe risk and longer duration threat will seemingly concentrate across parts of the TX Panhandle into the South Plains where 2300 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kt effective shear was sampled by the 00z Amarillo, TX raob. Although confidence is relatively limited, will maintain a significant wind/hail threat for this outlook update for storms and their associated hazards through the mid evening. ...Upper Midwest... The 00z International Falls, MN raob showed around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector ahead of a cool front. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east-southeast across far western Ontario and the Boundary Waters region. It is plausible additional storms will develop near the boundary and pose a risk for damaging gusts. It is uncertain how far southwest storms will develop across MN given the weak cap sampled on the Minneapolis raob but forcing for ascent focused farther north. ...Black Hills... For short-term details, please refer to MCD 1152. The isolated risk for severe gusts will likely diminish by 02-03z with the linear convection as surface temperatures cool. ..Smith.. 07/05/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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