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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, July 19, 2021

SPC Jul 19, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind gusts will be possible today from central North Dakota eastward across northern Minnesota. ...Central and Eastern North Dakota/Northern Minnesota... Anticyclonically curved northwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into North Dakota and Minnesota by midday. An east-to-west corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place along and just behind the front with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Moderate instability is forecast to develop during the afternoon along this moist corridor. Although large-scale ascent will be weak across the north-central U.S. today, low-level convergence will increase along parts of the front this afternoon. In response, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible. The instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear should be enough for a marginal severe threat. A potential for hail and strong gusty winds could develop late this afternoon from central North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/19/2021 Read more LIVE: