Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Friday/D4, models are in reasonable agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Dakotas during the day, and into Manitoba by Saturday/D5 morning. Storms may be ongoing along a cold front Friday/D5 morning over the eastern Dakotas, or perhaps into western MN should storm outflow move farther than currently forecast. This activity is generally forecast to wane as the upper wave lifts northeast. An unstable air mass will remain ahead of the front/outflow boundary over the upper MS Valley and additional storms may occur, but predictability is low. For the Saturday/D5 through Tuesday/D8 period, models generally build an upper ridge over the Plains and Four Corners states, but some ECMWF members show height falls over the upper Great Lakes region beginning on Sunday/D6 as a wave develops out of the northwest. Even if this solution occurs, the air mass in that region is forecast to be somewhat stabilized by the passage of a cold front on Saturday/D5. Elsewhere, large quantities of instability are forecast to remain over the southern Plains where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. A few diurnally driven storms cannot be ruled out over the southern High Plains near a dryline where heating will be most effective at removing CIN. However, the upper ridge will likely only support an isolated/disorganized severe threat, with low predictability. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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