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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

SPC Jun 8, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening over the northern High Plains. Damaging wind and hail are most likely, but a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin Thursday morning across the northern High Plains by evening, ejecting in negative-tilt fashion with strong cooling aloft late. Southerly winds aloft will increase with time, while a southeasterly low-level jet develops, enhancing shear. Low pressure is forecast to deepen over eastern MT during the afternoon, with a cold front surging into central ND/SD/NE by 12Z Friday. A warm front situated from northeast MT into ND is forecast to lift north during the day, with 60s F dewpoints contributing to strong instability late in the day. The cold front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous storms, some of which are likely to be severe. ...Northern High Plains... Strong heating will result in a plume of steep/dry-adiabatic low-level lapse rates across WY and much of southern MT Thursday afternoon, as southeasterly surface winds maintain 60s F dewpoints. The result will be MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg east of the surface low and developing cold front, along with around 40 kt effective shear. Large-scale ascent will increase markedly after 21Z, with storms initiating over eastern MT. Supercells will be possible initially, producing large/damaging hail. A tornado or two will be possible as well with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH. With time, activity is likely to grow upscale, with increasing damaging-wind potential into the central Dakotas. Damaging winds may extend farther south into NE, but capping will become a concern there. ..Jewell.. 06/08/2021 Read more LIVE: