SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of producing hail and strong gusts are possible across portions of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma through the overnight hours. ...Northwest TX in southwest OK... Uncertainty remains regarding convective development/evolution this evening into the overnight hours. CAMs guidance remains consistent in developing an organized cluster/bowing segment across parts of the Texas South Plains into northwest Texas/southwest OK overnight. While the thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space would support such development, large-scale forcing remains nebulous over the region. Currently, a small cluster of storms near Clovis NM has produced a well-defined outflow boundary surging east/southeast toward the NM/TX border west of Amarillo and Lubbock. There is some potential that storms could intensify/redevelop along this boundary as it shifts east into better low level moisture and stronger instability across the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. Steep low level lapse rates and moderate to strong instability could support strong downdrafts and cold pool development, which in turn would support an increasing threat for damaging winds into the nighttime hours. However, this scenario remains conditional and uncertain. As such, will maintain a Marginal risk. ...Upper MS Valley and Lower MS Valley... Severe potential has diminished across these areas this evening and the Marginal risk has been removed with this 01z update. ..Leitman.. 06/07/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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