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Sunday, June 6, 2021

SPC Jun 6, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...GULF COAST...AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail/wind are possible across portions of the southern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight, while a couple of tornadoes could across parts of the Gulf Coast including southern Louisiana to southern Alabama. ...Discussion... Strong consideration was given to introducing higher severe-wind probabilities across parts of northwest TX for tonight. Will maintain a 5-percent severe-gust posture for the time being and defer a possible upgrade to the 01 UTC outlook update due in part to variability in CAM guidance and the weakly forced scenario. Elsewhere, negligible changes were made to the previous outlook. ..Smith.. 06/06/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021/ ...Southern Plains including northwest/north Texas... A severe-storm supportive environment will exist on the south/southwest periphery of the upper low centered across Oklahoma and north Texas. However, some uncertainties linger regarding the most probable locations of severe risk later this afternoon into this evening/possibly overnight. A moist air mass exists across the region, with low 60s F surface dewpoints existing as far northwest as the Texas South Plains/Panhandle region, which coincides with the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer that extends eastward into west Texas as per 12Z upper-air data. Particularly near/west of decaying early morning precipitation and thinning clouds across west/north Texas, the boundary layer should become weakly capped and moderately to strongly unstable across the northern half of Texas, and as far northwest as the Caprock vicinity. Initial storm development should occur across the Raton Mesa vicinity and other parts of eastern New Mexico, with the potential for storm persistence and/or additional development into the Texas South Plains/southern Texas Panhandle this evening. Although northwesterly mid-level winds will not be overly strong, ample low-level veering with height, aided by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet, could aid storm sustenance and organization this evening. Severe hail and wind would be the primary risks. In particular, areas such as the southern Texas Panhandle, Texas South Plains, and Low Rolling Plains will be closely monitored/reevaluated today for increased confidence in deep convective development/severe potential and the possibility of a corresponding categorical Slight Risk upgrade. ...Gulf Coast including southern Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move northward to northeastward across the region today, posing mainly a heavy-rain threat as per WPC guidance. However, moderately enlarged low-level hodographs, as per the 12Z observed KLIX/Slidell sounding and more contemporary WSR-88D VWP data, will likely remain favorable for at least transient circulations within a very moist environment (70s F surface dewpoints, PW values 2+ inches). A couple of tornadoes could occur, but would likely be brief in the tropical-like environment, particularly given relatively weak winds/effective shear (25-30 kt) through a deeper layer. ...Upper Midwest/Minnesota... Although considerable uncertainty exists regarding the coverage and likelihood of storms, isolated thunderstorm development may occur late this afternoon/early evening near the eastward-advancing front, although the strongest influences of large-scale forcing for ascent/low-level convergence will be north of the International border across Ontario. That said, the environment near the front would be conditionally supportive of some strong/locally severe storms capable of wind/hail if/where storms develop across Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin. ...Maine... There is some potential that a couple of strong storms could develop near the front across central/northern Maine this afternoon, although the overall severe potential should remain low. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov