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Sunday, June 6, 2021

SPC Jun 6, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Dakotas into northwest Minnesota on Monday. The greatest threat is expected during the afternoon and evening, with a risk of severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough over the West is forecast to move little, or perhaps retrograde slightly, as a narrow ridge builds across portions of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. To the south of the building ridge, a persistent weak mid/upper level low will likely remain centered over Missouri for much of the period. A surface cyclone is forecast to gradually deepen over western SD, as a warm front moves quickly northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota. ...Dakotas into northwest MN... Substantial diurnal heating, sufficient low-level moisture, and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in the development of moderate-to-strong buoyancy Monday afternoon, near and south of the warm front moving northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will tend to gradually decrease with time, but will likely remain sufficient to support organized convection from western SD into southern ND and perhaps northwest MN by late afternoon. Midlevel heights will be rising across the region, though that will be due in part to strong low-level warm advection, with the primary subsidence associated with the building ridge expected to remain further south across southern MN into southeast SD. At least isolated thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon near the surface low and associated trough across the western Dakotas, in the vicinity of the warm front, and perhaps near any differential heating/mixing boundaries in the warm sector. Any development near the warm front would potentially become supercellular, with strong multicell clusters the most likely mode elsewhere. Large hail and severe wind gusts would likely be the primary threat, though a tornado may be possible with any supercell traversing the somewhat more moist and strongly sheared environment near the warm front. Convection may evolve into a small MCS that moves into portions of eastern ND and northwest MN during the evening, with an attendant threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail, before storms become increasingly elevated and weaken by late Monday night. ...North TX into the ArkLaTex... An MCS may be ongoing across portions of north TX at the start of the period Monday morning. If the MCS remains vigorous during the morning, then it may pose a threat of at least isolated damaging wind as it moves eastward toward the ArkLaTex. If it is in a weakened state, then it may leave behind an outflow boundary for additional development during the afternoon, which may also pose a threat for damaging wind, and perhaps marginal hail depending on the amount of heating/destabilization that can occur. ...Central/southern High Plains... Widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Moderate-to-strong instability may favor a threat of localized downbursts, though at this time convection is expected to remain disorganized. No areas have been added at this time, though only a small increase in midlevel flow/deep-layer shear compared to what is currently expected would justify adding wind probabilities in future updates. ..Dean.. 06/06/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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