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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, June 5, 2021

SPC Jun 6, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sat Jun 05 2021 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms are possible across parts of northern Maine the next few hours. Additional isolated strong to severe storms are possible into the early overnight hours across parts of North Dakota. Locally strong to damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity. ...Northern Maine... A line of convection is currently tracking southeastward across Aroostook County where surface dewpoints in the low 60s are aiding in weak instability. The 00z CAR RAOB, just downstream from ongoing convection, indicated around 40-45 kt effective shear amid roughly 1200 J/kg MLCAPE. While boundary layer inhibition will slowly increase with loss of daytime heating, the thermodynamic/shear parameter space could support organized storms capable of gusty winds for a few more hours this evening before the severe threat rapidly diminishes. As such, a small Marginal/5% wind risk will be maintained across northern Maine for the short-term severe potential. ...eastern Montana into North Dakota... Convection has struggled to remain organized/intense early this evening across parts of eastern MT. Overall dearth of boundary layer moisture and a deeply mixed boundary layer appears to be the main limiting factor per 00z regional RAOBs. Nevertheless, instability does increase with eastward extent across ND. Furthermore, forecast guidance shows some increase in convective coverage/intensity as thunderstorm clusters near the cold front encounter an increasing southerly low level jet later this evening into the early overnight hours. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2021 Read more LIVE: