SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO LOWER MI AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NM... CORRECTED FOR MISSING TORNADO GRAPHIC LABEL ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through this evening from the Ozarks to portions of Lower Michigan, and over the southern New Mexico/far west Texas region around El Paso. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z update. Isolated strong storms are ongoing across parts of southern MO, producing strong wind gusts. Clusters of strong storms will continue to be possible over the next several hours form southern MO into southern Lower MI. Additional storms are developing over parts of southern NM this afternoon and will also pose a risk for locally strong/damaging gusts. See MCD 1120 for short-term severe potential across southwest TX/southern NM. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/ ...MO to MI... A weak surface boundary extends from southeast Lower MI southwestward across portions of IN/IL into southwest MO. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with rich low-level moisture across the region will promote the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show that low-level winds are rather weak, and that the core of stronger mid-level winds has shifted slightly northward away from the boundary. This will result in less vertical shear than yesterday. A few storms may rotate or produce locally strong/gusty winds later today. But overall, the severe weather threat appears marginal along this corridor today. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over southern NM and southwest TX, where dewpoints in the upper 40s and a deeply mixed boundary layer are expected later today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and propagate into the valleys, with locally gusty/damaging winds possible in the strongest cells. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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