SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS FROM MISSOURI INTO MICHIGAN.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks to portions of Lower Michigan, and over the southern New Mexico/far west Texas region around El Paso. ...MO to MI... A weak surface boundary extends from southeast Lower MI southwestward across portions of IN/IL into southwest MO. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with rich low-level moisture across the region will promote the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show that low-level winds are rather weak, and that the core of stronger mid-level winds has shifted slightly northward away from the boundary. This will result in less vertical shear than yesterday. A few storms may rotate or produce locally strong/gusty winds later today. But overall, the severe weather threat appears marginal along this corridor today. ...Southwest TX and southern NM... Full sunshine is occurring this morning over southern NM and southwest TX, where dewpoints in the upper 40s and a deeply mixed boundary layer are expected later today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and propagate into the valleys, with locally gusty/damaging winds possible in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Moore.. 06/27/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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