SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Friday from portions of the southern/central Plains to the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. ...Southern/Central Plains to the Midwest... A positively tilted upper trough should advance slowly eastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow should exist from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes on the southern fringe of the upper trough. At the surface, a weak low may develop from parts of the Midwest to the southern Great Lakes by Friday evening, while a separate low remains over the central High Plains. A weak front should extend between these two surface lows across the central Plains and mid MS Valley. Any appreciable severe threat will mostly remain confined along and south of the weak front. There is considerable uncertainty in model guidance regarding the placement of this boundary Friday afternoon, as storms ongoing Friday morning may shunt the rich low-level moisture farther south along various outflow boundaries. Regardless, at least weak to locally moderate instability should develop south of the front where diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass can occur. Mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong, but they should still be sufficient for some storm organization. A mix of multicell clusters and supercells appears possible, posing an isolated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts. For now, a broad area of low severe probabilities has been included from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the Midwest and southern Great Lakes where there is some degree of confidence that surface-based storms may occur. Once confidence increases in the placement of storms that will likely be ongoing Friday morning, and when one or more corridors of greater destabilization can be ascertained, then greater severe probabilities will probably be needed. ..Gleason.. 06/23/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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