SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Primarily elevated storms may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest, likely aided by low-level warm advection. Additional storms should form by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front which is forecast to extend from near the U.P. of MI southwestward to the central Plains. Low-level moisture should increase through the day ahead of the front and to the northeast of a surface low which should be centered along/near the KS/NE border. Steep mid-level lapse rates will likely be present across the central Plains and perhaps into parts of IA if convection is not ongoing Thursday morning. Generally moderate to strong instability should develop ahead of the front, with slightly less robust values with northeastward extent into WI and the U.P. of MI. The strongest westerly mid-level flow associated with an upper trough/low is forecast to remain mostly displaced to the north across Canada. Even so, enough veering/strengthening of the wind profile with height through mid/upper levels should be present to support organized severe storms. The best potential for severe will likely be present along and to the southwest of any morning convection. There is still uncertainty regarding the placement and overall coverage of any morning storms, and the northeastward extent of strong destabilization that may occur across the Upper Midwest. Regardless, the forecast combination of moderate to strong instability and shear suggest that any storms that can form along the front will probably become severe fairly quickly. Both large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur. There is some indication in model guidance that storms may grow upscale into a cluster through Thursday evening across parts of central/eastern NE into western/central IA and perhaps northern MO as a south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. If this were to occur, then damaging winds would become the main threat. ..Gleason.. 06/22/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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