SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated storms may produce hail or strong wind gusts over northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado and the western Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are also possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the central to northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Upper-level high pressure will extend over much of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent southern/central Plains on Saturday. Within a weak west/northwest flow regime in the mid levels east of the ridge of high pressure, a convectively enhanced perturbation will traverse the lower MS Valley while a second perturbation moves across the Carolinas/GA. ...Northeast NM/southeast CO and western TX Panhandle... Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain aided by increasingly moist low-level upslope flow (60s dew points) and steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 Deg C/km. Veering wind profiles will support adequate effective shear for supercells despite rather modest mid-level flow, and storms will be capable of severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. As storms move east during the evening, merging outflows will contribute to a cluster or two towards the western TX Panhandle/South Plains. Damaging winds will be the primary risk, although isolated large hail will also remain possible. ...Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley east to FL Panhandle/southern GA... Moderate to strong MLCAPE will once again develop during the afternoon, in addition to minimal convective inhibition. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage by afternoon in the vicinity of a surface trough and as modest ascent develops in association with the previously mentioned perturbations. Despite generally weak flow aloft, localized enhancement of the flow associated with both vorticity maximas will contribute to 20-30 kts of effective shear, sufficient for organized multicells capable of mainly strong/isolated damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Moore.. 06/12/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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