SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms (some of which may be significant) with damaging winds as the primary hazard, along with large hail, are expected tonight. The most likely corridor is across eastern Kansas and adjacent western Missouri through parts of north-central and northeast Oklahoma. ...Central/southern Plains... A compact MCS continues to move south across southeast KS/southwest MO at 01z, with a history of significant severe downburst winds and large hail. Recent observational trends show isolated thunderstorm development farther west over south-central KS, where a convective outflow boundary from the MCS intersects the synoptic cold front. The environment downstream of the ongoing MCS and development near KICT remains extremely unstable, characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. Very warm midlevel temperatures farther south (19 deg C on the KOUN 00z sounding) casts some doubt on the extent of the severe threat, but with a well-developed cold pool lifted parcels should overcome convective inhibition at least as far as near the I-40 corridor. Damaging gusts, some significant, remain the primary threat tonight, and effective shear of 30-45 kts will support supercells with potentially significant severe hail. Overall, have trimmed probabilities based on radar trends over northern portions of the risk area, and extended Slight Risk probabilities farther east over northwest AR with this outlook. ...Wisconsin... Thunderstorms have weakened since 23z over southwest/west-central WI as SBCIN increases. Although a stronger cell cannot be ruled out over the next hour or so, the overall risk has diminished this evening and have removed the Marginal Risk in this area. ..Bunting.. 06/12/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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