SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NM/WEST TX INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTH TX...AND THE ARK-LA-MISS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of a hail and wind risk are possible over New Mexico and west Texas, and also over portions of the central and southern High Plains. Isolated damaging gusts may also occur from northeast Texas into Arkansas. ...Much of NM/TX northward into the central High Plains... There is some potential for an MCS to be ongoing across portions of south and central TX at the start of the period. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with any such system, and redevelopment of strong convection cannot be ruled out during the afternoon along any remnant boundary, though confidence remains low in the details. Further west, moderate instability will likely develop across portions of NM into west TX by afternoon. Weak southeasterly low-level flow veering to westerly aloft will support effective shear of 25-40 kt, supporting the potential for a few organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two capable of large hail and locally gusty winds. To the north across portions of the central/southern High Plains, one or more shortwave troughs embedded within northwesterly flow aloft will support widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. While buoyancy may remain relatively weak, steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures aloft may support some hail risk, as well as a risk of locally severe gusts where low-level lapse rates can diurnally steepen prior to convection. ...Southeast TX into the ArkLaMiss... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period in the ArkLaTex vicinity. Renewed thunderstorm development is possible by afternoon along and south of an outflow-reinforced surface boundary. Rich low-level moisture will support moderate buoyancy in areas where some diurnal heating can occur. Effective shear will be rather modest (generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger storms may be capable of localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/01/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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