SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NM AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind, along with a few tornadoes are possible across the southern High Plains. These hazards are expected to peak during the late afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... A swath of confluent mid-level southwesterlies will be prevalent downstream of a shortwave trough that should gradually shift across northern Baja into Sonora by early Monday. This belt of modestly enhanced flow in conjunction with weak to moderate buoyancy will support potential for numerous supercells and organized clusters, initiating first across the higher terrain this afternoon and spreading across the adjacent plains through evening into the early overnight. Ongoing convection near the Raton Mesa vicinity will likely serve as the northeast delimiter of the severe risk along the primary baroclinic zone. To its south, southeasterly low-level flow will persist and maintain a relatively moist boundary layer through central NM. Guidance does indicate potential for vertical mixing to yield a relative dry pocket limiting MLCAPE at peak heating, centered on the TX South Plains. But this region should eventually moisten during the evening as the low-level jet intensifies. Initial storms developing from the Sangre de Cristos in south-central CO to the TX Trans-Pecos will pose a primary risk of large hail. The intensifying low-level jet this evening should yield upscale growth into one or more clusters from the Raton Mesa to the Permian Basin. The tornado threat should maximize during this transition process, before severe wind gusts become the predominant hazard. A slow-moving but large MCS should ultimately evolve across the TX Panhandle and parts of west to northwest TX before weakening overnight along the quasi-stationary frontal zone. ...FL Peninsula... In the presence of weak low-level flow, Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea-breezes appear likely to advance inland with strong heating over the interior peninsula. As they do, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a low-amplitude upper trough, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Weak deep-layer shear will limit organization, but 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a risk for locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail through about sunset. ...Northern MN... A shortwave impulse over southwest Manitoba will slide east along the MN international border, with attendant forcing for ascent supporting isolated to scattered low-topped convection this afternoon. While boundary-layer moisture will be limited, steepening low to mid-level lapse rates should yield weak buoyancy at peak heating. With a belt of about 40-kt 500-mb westerlies, this setup may produce isolated marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds through about sunset. ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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