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Sunday, May 30, 2021

SPC May 30, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across parts of southwest Texas, southeast New Mexico, and eastward into the Edwards Plateau on Monday afternoon and evening. The risk for a tornado, large hail to very large hail, and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ...Southern High Plains into central TX... A mid-level trough will remain nearly stationary over AZ/northwest Mexico while weakening whereas a mid-level speed max rounding its base will move into southwest TX by late afternoon. It seems likely showers/thunderstorms will be ongoing early Monday morning. Models differ on the southward extent of this early day thunderstorm activity and its associated outflow. Nonetheless, it seems at this point that convective outflow will push southward into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley. However, strong heating to the south of outflow (i.e., southwest TX) will again lead to the development of a very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon within the plume of richer low-level moisture. Upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible over the Big Bend with 1500-2500 J/kg farther north over southeast NM. Elongated hodographs with 50-60 kt effective shear coupled with the magnitude of buoyancy lends confidence in a focused area for potential significant severe. Convective initiation will favor the higher terrain with some of these storms evolving into intense supercells as they mature and move into richer moisture. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will accompany the stronger storms. A tornado risk could develop for a few hours and focus within the moisture plume during the 22-02 UTC period. One or more clusters may eventually evolve during the evening before this activity weakens below severe thresholds by late evening as the boundary layer cools. ...Northern Wisconsin... A northern stream mid-level disturbance over the Upper Midwest is forecast to move southeast into the western Great Lakes by late afternoon. Cool mid-level temperatures (-20 to -22 deg at 500 mb) will result in weak buoyancy (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) despite surface dewpoints in the low 50s F. Marginally severe hail and strong to locally damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms during the afternoon before this activity weakens by the early evening. ..Smith.. 05/30/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov