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Friday, May 28, 2021

SPC May 28, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of west and central Texas into eastern New Mexico, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Eastern NM into portions of West/Central TX... Some minor adjustments have been made to the outlook. The Slight Risk has been expanded into northeast NM, where it appears that scattered hail-producing cells will be possible into early evening. The northern portion of the Enhanced Risk across western/central TX has been trimmed due to the southward advance of a colder and more stable environment. Otherwise, the outlook reasoning remains valid, with supercells capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and possibly a couple of tornadoes expected through this evening. See the previous outlook discussion and recent mesoscale discussions for more details. ..Dean.. 05/28/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/ ...TX... A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place today across much of central and southwest TX, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s, pockets of strong heating, and very steep mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings across the region show afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and little cap. This should result in the development of scattered intense supercells along the various boundaries analyzed over this area and along the dryline over southeast NM and southwest TX. Deep layer shear will favor rotating storms, and straight-line hodographs suggest left-moving supercells will also occur. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. However, the primary threat appears to be very large hail. Therefore, have opted to add an ENH risk area and a 30%/sig hail probability area. Storms should maintain severe threat through much of the evening as they spread southeastward toward central TX, with an increasing risk of bowing structures and damaging winds. ...LA/MS to VA/MD... A large upper trough is moving across the MS/OH valleys, with relatively strong westerly flow aloft over much of the TN Valley, Appalachians, and Mid Atlantic region. Considerable cloud cover is limiting heating over many areas, but there appears to be a corridor from southern MS into parts of NC/VA where at least pockets of heating/destabilization will occur. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across this entire region, with the potential for robust updrafts/downdrafts in those areas of slightly better CAPE. The area of most concern is in vicinity of a the Chesapeake Bay where backed low level winds and ample moisture are present. This area is very small, with inconsistent CAM solutions on coverage of storms, but there is some concern for a more organized storm or two late this afternoon in the region posing a risk of gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. ...MT... A few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening over southeast MT along a cold front moving into the area. Instability will be quite weak, but there is the potential of a strong storm or two producing hail and gusty winds. Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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