SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue May 25 2021 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable over parts of the central Great Plains. Severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Eastern Wyoming into the lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough initially over ID Wednesday morning, will move east into the Dakotas during the period. A lower-latitude belt of moderate mid-level flow is forecast to move from NM/CO into the TX Panhandle by early evening and strengthen across KS overnight. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central High Plains and develop eastward along the KS/NE border late. A residual frontal zone over the central Great Plains is forecast to advance northward into NE during the day. Increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow will advect moisture into western NE/eastern WY by mid afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent coupled with the diurnal weakening of a capping inversion, will support widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. Large to very large hail is possible in addition to severe gusts with supercellular activity. By early evening, additional storms will probably develop farther east within the moisture plume over west-central NE as a LLJ strengthens and a potential tornado risk before upscale growth occurs. There is high confidence in the eventual development of an MCS to move across southern NE and into northern KS overnight. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) and richer moisture may aid in the development of a mature/severe MCS. Model run-to-run consistency and increased confidence yielded 30-percent wind probabilities this outlook update. Severe gusts, potentially significant, could accompany the more pronounced bowing portions of the squall line as it moves east into the lower MO Valley late. ...Southwest Kansas into west TX... A lee trough/dryline is forecast to sharpen during the day as 60s F dewpoints are forecast in the High Plains. Forecast soundings show a very unstable airmass developing by late afternoon across the TX Panhandle with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE expected. Localized erosion of CINH will likely lead to widely scattered thunderstorms developing. Effective shear around 40 kt will favor supercells with a threat for very large hail and severe gusts. A tornadic supercell is possible, especially where temperature/dewpoint spreads are locally minimized. Increasing convective inhibition during the evening will eventually lead to a diminished severe risk by late evening. ...OH Valley into the Northeast... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning is forecast to move to the lower Great Lakes by early evening. An attendant cool front will push southeastward across the Great Lakes and into parts of the Northeast by early Thursday morning. A seasonably moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 60s deg F will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon across much of this area. Models indicate a cluster of showers/thunderstorms could be ongoing over the southern Great Lakes Wednesday morning with this activity intensifying as it moves east and the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Storm organization into line segments is probable near the front while more isolated activity is expected farther east over the interior Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic states. A corridor of enlarged hodographs with moist low levels is forecast across parts of New England where more discrete modes are expected yielding a potential tornado or two with the most intense storms. Scattered damaging gusts and perhaps some hail are possible with the stronger storms beginning during the midday and continuing into the early evening before storms diminish. ..Smith.. 05/25/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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