SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue through late evening across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Central/Southern Plains... Right entrance region of mid-level jet may be partly responsible for the central High Plains convection this evening. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max is translating northeast across the Red River Valley of the North and this feature should flatten the height field across MN during the overnight hours. Farther south, minimal height changes are expected. Along the trailing surface front, steep low-level lapse rate plume extends across northern NM into southwestern portions of KS. This is enhancing a buoyancy reservoir that currently extends across the southern High Plains-western KS-southwestern NE where MLCAPE is in excess of 2000 J/kg. DDC sounding appears to have sampled this air mass well, but only modest surface-6km shear is observed over southwestern KS. Even so, several supercells have evolved across western KS and this activity will gradually propagate east and south across the remainder of ww200 over the next few hours. Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes remain possible. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are increasing in areal coverage across the TX South Plains and this activity has evolved within a weaker flow regime. As a result, multiple storm mergers should lead to an MCS over the next few hours. This cluster would then propagate east-southeast across northwestern TX with a threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 05/25/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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