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Monday, May 24, 2021

SPC May 24, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind are possible, mainly from mid-afternoon through this evening, over parts of the central Great Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Central Great Plains to Upper Midwest... A stalling surface front will effectively act more as a dryline at peak heating with warmer surface temperatures west of the boundary in the Upper Midwest due to deeper mixing. A shortwave impulse near the UT/WY/CO border will eject northeast into the Upper Midwest by evening. The bulk of stronger mid-level southwesterlies will largely parallel and remain confined to the dry side of the front. But sufficient deep-layer shear will exist in vicinity of the front to support a mixed mode of multicell clusters with embedded supercells, as scattered thunderstorms develop during the mid to late afternoon. These will likely be most pronounced across western KS and perhaps into the Mid-MO Valley where a moderately unstable air mass is expected by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg. Scattered severe hail and wind will be the primary hazards. Some guidance indicates additional storms will initiate overnight from eastern CO into northwest KS within a zone of increasing isentropic ascent north of the front. Some of this activity may also produce large hail and locally strong winds. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos and north along the dryline from southeast NM into the western OK/TX Panhandle on the western periphery of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points. While moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg amid steep mid-level lapse rates is expected, flow aloft will remain relatively weak across the region. Given the modest deep-layer shear, multicells eventually evolving into slow-moving multicell clusters will be the primary storm modes. Isolated to perhaps scattered severe wind gusts along with isolated large hail will be the main hazards. ...Central VA and eastern WV... Backdoor surface front will become situated from the central Appalachians through VA into NC during the afternoon where dew points in the low 60s F will reside. Diabatic warming of the surface layer will contribute to destabilization and inverted-V low-level thermodynamic profiles, but weak mid-level lapse rates should limit MLCAPE to near or below 500 J/kg. A few thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain within the modest northwest flow regime. Some of this activity might become capable of producing locally damaging winds. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov