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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, May 24, 2021

SPC May 24, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon May 24 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and severe gusts, are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the central Great Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will characterize the warm sector east of the dryline across the southern High Plains today. The eastern fringe of steeper mid-level lapse rates will overlap the dryline, contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. With a northern-stream upper trough ejecting well north of this region into the northern Plains, flow aloft will remain relatively weak over the southern High Plains. Nevertheless, storms are expected to develop along the dryline during the afternoon. Given the relatively weak shear, multicells eventually evolving into multicell clusters will be the primary storm modes with isolated large hail and locally strong to damaging gusts the primary threat from late afternoon into the evening. ...Central Plains... A front will likely stall from the upper MS Valley through the central Plains this afternoon, though the position of this boundary will be modulated to some degree by outflow from last nights storms. The stronger winds aloft accompanying the ejecting upper trough will remain in post frontal region, but mid-upper flow in vicinity of the front will be sufficient for a few organized storms including both multicells and some supercell structures. The atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable by mid-late afternoon with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms will develop along this boundary and spread northeast, possibly evolving into lines clusters with time. A few instances of large hail and damaging outflow gusts will be the primary threats into the evening. Some high resolution guidance indicate additional storms will initiate overnight from far eastern CO into northwest KS within a zone of increasing isentropic ascent north of the front. Some of this activity may also produce large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Mid Atlantic Area... Backdoor front will become situated from the central Appalachians through VA into NC during the afternoon where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will reside. Diabatic warming of the surface layer will contribute to destabilization and inverted-V low-level thermodynamic profiles, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit MLCAPE to near or below 500 J/kg. A few showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain and in association with vorticity maxima embedded within the northwest upper flow regime. Some of this activity might become capable of producing strong outflow winds, but the overall threat will remain limited by the weak thermodynamic environment. ..Dial/Wendt.. 05/24/2021 Read more LIVE: