SPC May 17, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... 

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...

Texas Coastal Plains... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Wednesday. Mid-level flow ahead of the upper-level tough will be south-southwesterly across much of the southern Plains. An MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of south-central and east-central Texas. To the southeast of the MCS, a moist airmass should be in place with surface dewpoints near 70 F. In response, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the Texas Coastal Plains by midday. Convective development will be possible along an outflow boundary associated with the ongoing MCS. The forecast position of this outflow boundary is highly uncertain at this time. The NAM keeps the outflow boundary further west, which would be a more favorable scenario for severe storm development. In contrast, the GFS drives the outflow boundary southeastward across much of the Texas Coastal Plains. This would be a less favorable scenario for severe storms, because much of the airmass would be worked over by afternoon. If the NAM scenario pans out, low to mid-level flow is forecast to be strong enough for organized severe storms. The primary threats would be for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Due to the conditional nature of the forecast, a slight risk will not be added at this time. ...

Southern and Central High Plains... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday. In response, a lee trough will likely strengthen across the High Plains, resulting in moisture advection during the day. Surface dewpoints from the Texas Panhandle northward into western Kansas should rise into the lower to mid 60s F, contributing to pockets of moderate instability. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along the western edge of a north-to-south corridor of instability. These storms are forecast to move across the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. Although supercells can not be ruled out, most of the convection should remain multicellular. Hail and strong gusty winds are expected to be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 05/17/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov
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