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Friday, May 14, 2021

SPC May 14, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Fri May 14 2021 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...

SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains on Sunday. ...

Southern Plains... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the southern Plains on Sunday as a shortwave ridge moves across the southern Rockies. At the surface, winds should be southerly across much of the southern Plains, resulting in moisture advection during the day. Surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid 60s F to the east of a west Texas dryline by afternoon, allowing moderate instability to develop across much of west Texas. The presence of the upper-level ridge in the southern High Plains should keep convective coverage isolated on Sunday. However, low-level convergence may be strong enough to allow for isolated thunderstorm development near the dryline. This convection should move eastward across west Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. Directional shear in the low to mid-levels and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will probably be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. ...

Central High Plains... A shortwave ridge will move eastward across the central Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, upslope flow will remain in place across much of the central Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon from southwest Kansas into southeastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm, topographical forcing will result in thunderstorm development in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado. These storms are forecast to move eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings near Lamar at 21Z on Sunday have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 kt range with very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat. The stronger multicells could have marginally severe wind gusts and hail, especially if a line segment can organize during the early evening. ..Broyles.. 05/14/2021 Read more LIVE: spc.noaa.gov

NWS SPC Convective Outlook provided by Arlingtoncardinal.com/weather

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